Biopharma: The Next 10 Years

Every so often my colleagues in the Consulting world get the urge to gaze into the crystal ball and wax poetic about what our industry must do to survive and prosper in the future. Typically you get these reports from firms like PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), Accenture, McKinsey & Co. and IBM. So, I was pleasantly surprised to see one from British Telecom (BT), not a name that one normally thinks about in the Life Sciences space.

Click on the illustration to see a larger version. Illustration taken from the BT report and is the Copyright of British Telecom.

The report, "Pharma Futurology, Joined-Up Healthcare - 2016 and Beyond," was a collaborative effort by many BT staffers and has an introduction by Yuri Rozenman, Head of Marketing, Pharmaceutical Sector.

The report starts out with a caveat that many prior attempts to predict the future have turned out to be off the mark. To increase the odds of this one being a bit more accurate, the study team used "a ‘reverse root-cause’ analysis methodology the teams worked forwards from their respective starting points and made predictions about what might happen and how the future might look. Outliers – the more wacky, provocative or least supported views – were removed. The resulting predictions were validated by a panel of experts from biotech and pharmaceutical firms, government, academia and venture funds."

The chart at the top of this post depicts the predictions of the study teams on pharmaceutical, healthcare and technology fronts with a further attempt to estimate when each will come into its own. Here is a bulleted version of the chart:

Now to 2010:

• Semantic web in R&D widespread
• In-silico modelling plots
• Shift to prevention and care
• Supply chain RFID track and trace
• Electronic medical records

2010 to 2012:

• In-life trials and plots
• Monitoring workplace
• NICE* uses outcomes and screening data
• Ubiquitous use of diagnostics
• Sensor pilots
• System-wide ePatient records
• Secure virtual networks
• Home monitoring enabled

2012 to 2014:

• Expert system used in primary care setting
• Theranostics commonplace
• Multimedia patient reports
• Artificial Intelligence: sensors, data, treatment
• Wearable devices
• Complete ePedigree
• Manufacturing bases moved to India/China

2014 to 2016:

• Partnerships with payor and sensor owners
• Harmonised regulatory environments
• Drugs routinely tested in-silico
• Outcomes data drive payments
• Prevention drugs become dominant
• Data privacy guaranteed and standards agreed
• Semantic and other smart analyses

While these bullet points give you a good feel for the possible future, it is necessary to read the entire report to truly appreciate what is meant by each. In many cases, the report gives actual examples of the prediction.

In addition, the report has sidebars on the following topics:

• In-silico modelling
• NHS Data Spine
• Active skin
• In-vitro computing
• Personalised medicine
• Outcomes based reimbursement

A key point of the report is that the pharmaceutical industry can no longer afford to act in isolation. There are simply too many political, business, social and environmental activities taking place on the outside that can only be ignored at ones peril. Putting a more positive spin on this, there is an opportunity (or many actually) for our industry to collaborate with any and all external parties, and especially the healthcare consumer, to improve treatment and prevention while protecting the bottom line.

Speaking specifically about technology, the report states that "technological improvements will open the door to new opportunities, but they alone cannot determine whether an organisation will be successful. There is a great deal of difference between information and wisdom. It is one thing to comprehend the changes that are likely to occur, but another thing entirely to be prepared to implement them. Pharma must take positive action and start the ball rolling, as to do nothing is to run the risk of becoming mute in a networked world of communication."

And that is just one of the many recommendations to be found in this interesting and thought provoking report.

* - UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence